Step 1
Strategic Context
Frame the question this scenario work is answering. Schwartz: the focal question is the anchor — every scenario is a different answer to the same question.
The strategic question these scenarios are designed to answer. One sentence. Should be specific enough to make each scenario a meaningfully different answer.
Step 2
Driving Forces
Schwartz: driving forces are the forces shaping the environment — some are predetermined (they will happen regardless), others are critical uncertainties (they could go either way). Select what's relevant, then name the two critical uncertainties that define your scenario axes.
The most important variable you cannot predict. Defines the horizontal axis.
The second most important variable. Defines the vertical axis.
Forces that are not uncertain — they shape all three scenarios equally.
Step 3
The Three Scenarios
GBN framework: name each scenario evocatively — not "Best Case" but a short phrase that captures the world it describes. Then fill in what that world looks like, what it requires of the organization, and what the decision looks like in that world.
Optimistic
Realistic
Constrained
Short, evocative. Should capture the world it describes, not just its valence.
2–3 sentences describing the external environment in this scenario. What has gone well or aligned?
Low
Moderate
High
Low
Moderate
High
Low
Moderate
High
Step 4
Across All Scenarios
The most important output of scenario planning is not the scenarios themselves — it is what you discover is true across all of them. Bridgespan: the decisions that hold up in multiple scenarios are the most defensible ones to make now.
What does the organization need to do regardless of which scenario unfolds? These are your most defensible near-term actions.
The action that is defensible across the range of scenarios — not contingent on which one unfolds.
The signal or event that should prompt the organization to revisit this framework.
2×2 Scenario Axes
Vertical: Axis Y (Uncertainty 2)
Optimistic
—
Alternative
Fourth quadrant — not always used in three-scenario work
Realistic
—
Constrained
—
← Favorable conditions
Axis X (Uncertainty 1)
Adverse conditions →
Scenario 1 — Optimistic
Not yet named
Likelihood: —
Scenario 2 — Realistic
Not yet named
Likelihood: —
Scenario 3 — Constrained
Not yet named
Likelihood: —
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